Fig. 1

Estimated beginning and end of migration (\(\hat{t_1}\) and \(\hat{t_2}\) for 150 simulated migratory movements generated according to three different mechanistic models (speed switch, timescale switch, and bias switch), all with “true” migrations lasting from \(t = 100\) to \(t = 200\). Each panel represents one of the competing migration modelling techniques, organized by rows: MMCP (our multi-metric change-point approach) NLS [10], FPT [58], BPWR [99], MRSA [42], BCPA [40], and BPMM [37]. The y-axis of each panel represents the proportion of paths that were estimated as being migratory along each point of the x-axis (time). Models that effectively identify migration should display three vertical stripes of teal, yellow, and purple, from left to right